Shanghai Home Expo has learned that in 2026, China's home furnishing industry presents a development pattern of “warm domestic demand and cold overseas markets, with fire and ice intertwined,” standing at a critical juncture of transformation and upgrading. The domestic market is driven by robust momentum from existing stock renovation, compounded by the continuous release of policy dividends, providing ample growth impetus; meanwhile, the overseas market environment remains sluggish, with the industry’s overall exports under pressure.

Data shows that urban residential properties in China with a building age exceeding 20 years account for 35% of the total housing stock. As renovation demand from existing stock is released in a concentrated wave, the 2026 stock renovation market is expected to exceed RMB 2.5 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of over 8%. This year, China's home decoration market is projected to reach RMB 3.65 trillion, with the potential to surpass RMB 4.5 trillion by 2030. At the same time, the government has allocated RMB 62.5 billion in the first batch of dedicated national subsidies to support the trade-in program for the home furnishing industry, continuously stimulating domestic demand.

The overseas market, however, is distinctly chilly. In 2025, several well-known European and American home furnishing giants filed for bankruptcy or suspended operations one after another, with the industry as a whole experiencing a downturn. Affected by this, China's home furnishing exports have continued to decline—furniture exports fell by 5.6% in 2025, lighting exports dropped by 11.9%, and in the first four months of 2026, furniture and parts exports saw a modest year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The divergence between domestic and overseas markets is pronounced.

Amid the reshaping of market dynamics, the home furnishing industry has embarked on comprehensive structural upgrading. Smart home technology has emerged as the core growth track. In 2025, the domestic smart home market reached RMB 815.4 billion, up 29% year-on-year, and is expected to exceed RMB 1.8 trillion by 2030. The home furnishing industry is accelerating its transition from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing.

Consumer trends have also undergone a marked shift. Consumers are moving away from outward-oriented aesthetic consumption toward "inward-oriented" consumption that prioritizes living experience. High-end customization, healing-oriented soft furnishings, and other personalized home products have become new hotspots. The emotional economy market is projected to exceed RMB 4.5 trillion by 2029.

Green transformation and high-end positioning have become the mainstream of industry development. The newly implemented national standard for formaldehyde emission limits is driving the industry away from cutthroat low-price competition toward value-based competition. Over 90% of consumers prioritize eco-friendly building materials, and more than 60% are willing to pay a premium for green home decoration. Meanwhile, the market center of gravity continues to shift downward, with new first-tier cities accounting for 45.70% of renovation demand, having become the core growth pole of the home furnishing industry and reshaping industry channels and operational layouts.

As the domestic market gradually saturates and stock competition intensifies, brand globalization has become an inevitable path for home furnishing enterprises to break through bottlenecks. In 2025, China's furniture and parts exports reached RMB 455.9 billion, pan-home furnishing full-category exports stood at approximately RMB 516 billion, and the fashion home furnishing segment achieved export scale of RMB 89.2 billion—the overseas market still possesses vast development potential.

Today, China's home furnishing globalization has entered an entirely new phase. The industry is consolidating its foundation through domestic upgrading and opening new frontiers through brand globalization, gradually achieving a transformation from manufacturing output to brand output, and driving the industry's high-quality global development.

Source: toutiao