Shanghai Furniture Fair has learned that the industry report "Big Data Insights: Flow, Transformation, and Opportunities in the China–Vietnam–US Home Furnishing Supply Chain" has been officially released. Drawing on big data from Furniture Today and integrating figures from China's General Administration of Customs, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau, and the U.S. International Trade Commission, the report traces three rounds of restructuring in the global home furnishing supply chain, analyzes the U.S. furniture import landscape and China's furniture export transformation, identifies opportunities in niche segments, and examines the opportunities and risks facing home furnishing exporters as Vietnam enters a "post-dividend era."

Looking at the global home furnishing industry, the supply chain has undergone three rounds of restructuring. U.S. imports of wooden furniture shifted first from Europe to Taiwan and Canada. After China's WTO accession in 2001, it leveraged cost and supply-chain advantages to become the largest source of U.S. furniture imports, holding that position for nearly 20 years. The first restructuring took place from 2001 to 2018—a phase of cost-driven globalization in which China grew into the "world's furniture factory." Lower trade barriers prompted European and American brands to shift production overseas, and China gradually built comprehensive furniture industry clusters. By 2018, China accounted for a peak 55% of U.S. furniture imports, Vietnam 17%, Canada and Mexico 5% each, Italy 3%, and all other countries combined 15%.

From 2018 to 2024, U.S.–China trade frictions triggered a second round of supply chain restructuring. The U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese furniture, and overseas buyers pushed for supply chain diversification. Many Chinese home furnishing companies set up factories in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, with Vietnam rapidly absorbing transferred production thanks to tariff advantages. Data show that between 2018 and 2024, China's share of U.S. furniture imports fell from 55% to 19%, while Vietnam's rose from 17% to 43%. In 2021, both countries held an equal 31% share—a major turning point for the industry. In 2024, Vietnam's furniture exports to the U.S. reached $12.705 billion, up 23.58% year-on-year; China's exports to the U.S. were $12.384 billion, a modest 2.69% increase. In 2025, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. further reached $14.48 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year.

A third restructuring has been underway since 2025, as the industry shifts from simple production relocation to global supply chain configuration, moving from a single-center model to a multi-node layout. Multiple factors are rewriting the industry's rules: tariff differentials across countries have widened while low-cost advantages are fading; rules of origin and trade compliance requirements have tightened, raising risks for transshipment trade; Vietnam's labor and land costs continue to climb, eroding its cost advantage; and the U.S. furniture market has weakened, with imports down 15.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026. Meanwhile, Chinese furniture companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, reducing their dependence on the U.S. to around 23%.

The U.S. domestic furniture import market is overall under pressure, and the industry landscape is being reshaped. (Statistics cover household furniture, excluding outdoor and specialty furniture.) U.S. furniture imports hit a cyclical high in 2021–2022, reaching $68.2 billion in 2022. The market then corrected: a sharp adjustment in 2023 was followed by a brief recovery to $56.66 billion in 2024 (up 5.0% year-on-year); imports fell back to $52.01 billion in 2025 (down 8.2%); and in the first half of 2026, cumulative imports stood at $23.89 billion, down 13.1% year-on-year.

Performance has diverged across import sources. In 2025, Vietnam led U.S. imports at $14.48 billion, followed by Mexico at $10.01 billion and China at $9.75 billion (down a sharp 31.1% year-on-year). Trends among Southeast Asian nations varied: Malaysia posted modest growth, while Thailand and Cambodia achieved high-speed growth. In the first half of 2026, exports from Vietnam, Mexico, and China to the U.S. all declined to varying degrees; Malaysia and Indonesia also retreated, while Cambodia and Thailand maintained strong growth. Overall, Vietnam has been the top U.S. supplier for two consecutive years on the strength of its wooden and upholstered furniture production; Mexico has become a key node in the North American supply chain thanks to its geographic proximity; and U.S. procurement is no longer overly reliant on Vietnam, with a multi-point Southeast Asian supply network now in place.

Turning to China, the country's furniture exports are becoming less dependent on the U.S., and the effects of diversified market layout are becoming evident. (The report uses the FTCFE statistical framework, focusing on traditional furniture categories.) Overall exports have bottomed out and stabilized: 483.0 billion yuan in 2024 (up 7.0% year-on-year); 474.8 billion yuan in 2025 (down 5.2%); and 243.71 billion yuan in the first half of 2026 (down just 0.8%), with June alone reaching 43.12 billion yuan, a 3.3% year-on-year rebound.

In terms of export structure, China's share of exports to the U.S. has fallen from 28% in 2022 to 23%, dipping to 19% in some months. Export markets continue to diversify, with the share of leading countries declining and emerging markets gaining. By export volume, overseas markets fall into three tiers, with the U.S., UK, Japan, Germany, and Australia in the first tier. Three broad changes are evident: export volumes have stopped falling and are stabilizing, dependence on the U.S. has dropped significantly, and markets have shifted from concentration toward multipolarity.

By product category, most finished furniture imports into the U.S. declined in 2025 and the first half of 2026, with only seating components maintaining growth. In the first half of 2026, China's leading export categories were non-office metal furniture, non-office wooden furniture, and metal-frame seating, with spring mattresses and other categories posting modest growth. China's strengths extend beyond finished goods—its component processing and supply chain support are equally formidable.

Vietnam's competitive advantages are concentrated in wooden furniture and wood-frame upholstered furniture, not across all categories. Vietnam supplies 55% of U.S. wooden bedroom furniture imports and 42.4% of cabinet imports, while China and Vietnam together account for approximately 80% of the wood-frame upholstered seating market. When selecting products for overseas expansion, companies must comprehensively consider U.S. market demand, Vietnam's local supply chain, upstream raw material dependencies, tariff rules, and cost-effectiveness. It is also important to note that China's factory model cannot be simply replicated in Vietnam—the country lacks a complete supply chain and skilled workers, and simple assembly operations risk penalties for non-compliance with rules of origin.

Vietnam's furniture industry has now entered a "post-dividend era," with multiple pressures mounting simultaneously. U.S. Section 301 intellectual property investigations and forced-labor-related investigations bring trade policy risks; Thailand and Cambodia are diverting overseas orders; and Vietnam's insufficient upstream supply chain means heavy reliance on Chinese components. In core regions such as Binh Duong, minimum wages have risen by approximately 20% cumulatively over six years, driving labor costs steadily higher.

The report points out that market diversification is no longer an optional path but a necessity for home furnishing exporters. The core competitiveness of Vietnamese factories lies in manufacturing efficiency and localized supply chain development, not in a country-of-origin label. U.S. market demand has not disappeared—it has simply entered a repricing phase. Inefficient capacity is being cleared from the market, and efficient companies are better positioned to weather cyclical fluctuations. Companies should view Vietnam as an important node in their global production footprint, not as a tariff-avoidance haven. Shanghai Furniture Fair believes that Faced with a complex foreign trade environment, Chinese home furnishing companies can only achieve high-quality globalization by strengthening their supply chain foundations while simultaneously advancing production footprint and market diversification.

Source: Furniture Today